Inflation expectations among businesses can affect how they set current prices. Firms’ expectations diverged from those of ...

The weekly Labor Market Stress Indicator (LMSI) tracks state-level labor market developments in real time to better understand labor market conditions as they evolve. The measure is built from weekly ...

This data series is part of the Center for Monetary Research. Treasury Yield Skewness is a daily indicator measuring the risks to the future outlook for interest rates, based on prices of Treasury ...

Firms frequently revise not only their expectations, but also how uncertain they feel about those expectations. Using the U.S ...

This paper proposes a validation framework for LLM-generated measurements when reliable benchmarks are unavailable. Validity is established by testing whether an LLM can reconstruct passages from ...

Local data presented by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco staff at the San Joaquin Valley Financial Empowerment convening ...

A new indicator—the Inflation Shock Momentum Index—can help identify emerging inflationary or disinflationary pressures in real time. The index tracks the shares of consumer spending categories that ...

Mary C. Daly, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco joined José Luis Escrivá, Governor of the Banco de España for a moderated conversation at the Banco de España’s conference, ...

Lawrence D.W. Schmidt, associate professor of finance at the Rady School of Management, UCSD delivered a live presentation on the impact of AI on labor and wages on July 1, 2026. Professor Schmidt ...

Aaron “Ronnie” Chatterji, chief economist at OpenAI and Sylvain Leduc, director of economic research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, held a live discussion on the economic value of AI in ...

As generative AI tools become more widely used, a key issue is the technology’s impact on labor demand. Where might we find evidence of that impact? In this post, we examine whether early evidence of ...